I’ve worked on Windows Mobiles since 2007 (developed the Live Mesh client back then), and have probably gone into depths of that OS few non-team-members have gone into. It was never a big secret that I wasn’t a big fan of the 6.x versions (though I had a good opinion of 5.0 for the day and age that they came in.) I believe WM5.0 was a revolution that never got it’s true appreciation. Until that day, there were two distinct worlds – the Desktop where you have APIs and applications, and the mobile world where you had some puny J2ME kinda stuff which displayed 3 lines of text on a screen. WM5 changed the space drastically by showing the world a first-class application with all the executables and dlls and COM and .Net could be written on it.
A lot of people have been trying to solicit my thoughts and opinions on WP7 and here’s all I have to say about it. Please note that I’ve not been involved in WP7 at all so all my comments are based purely on information available to the public. I would just ask you to please be patient and read through before responding.
Having said that WM did drop the ball on many technical as well as non-technical issues which has completely changed in WP7. I refuse to comment on “success” of WP7 because a lot of people expect the fanboy answer from me – “Hell yeah. It’ll sell like hot cakes in the holiday season.” I’m sorry you won’t get that answer in this post or anywhere else. I don’t say it won’t sell like hot cakes, but that’s not what I care about much. To me, the iPhone brought in a welcome change in the market in how phones are defined, perceived and developed. What customers should expect, and should not expect. I do believe Windows Phone 7 is a welcome improvement to what came before it, but it is a phenomenal improvement in how Microsoft as a company, will look at phones ever after!
As a basis for this post, I’m going to be ultra-crisp-clear about two different issues: Sales and Good-ness. A lot of times, I find myself going around in circles with people who have little reasoning abilities. Sales are the bottom-line for any company – how many units will sell compared to others (there’s no way escaping the fact that sales are _always_ relative!) Good-ness, will be what I think makes a phone great. I do care what you think makes the phone great so feel free to reply.
For anyone who develops a platform (unlike Apple), the first-day sales of a phone are much less important than whether or not it has a lasting impact on the market. The blackberry for instance was never a first-day hit, but it became an icon. Apple’s iPods too, weren’t sold in a day. They set the stage for Apple’s credibility. Imagine January 2007, and the CEO of some other unknown company from Taiwan demonstrating the EXACT SAME PHONE. Would you have cared about it much? Would you give a damn? Sure, you’d say, “I may buy that some day. Looks great.”
Then you’d go about doing your business. That’s just what did happen with Android even with the big multi-billion-dollar company behind it. People posted it on slashdot, people talked about it, people wrote some toy apps. It took over two years for Google to give Android the right image before people bought the phones. And just when I was starting to hear how Android “finally” surpassed the iPhone, a week later, I couldn’t order an iPhone 4 because I was 20 minutes late to the store.
The history lesson was there for a purpose – I have spoken about denial before. Wishing a problem away won’t make it go away. You have to look at it and attack it head on. So what is WP7 doing so much that makes me so optimistic about it’s pervasiveness, but doesn’t excite me about the opening-day sales?
If there’s one thing the Palm fiasco taught us, it’s that reviews, claims, opinions are no indicator of success, and the iPhone 4 went and added another dimension that doesn’t indicate success – opening-day sales. So what does indicate “success”? Read on…
The People: Almost every year, my opinion on what makes a great team keeps changing. For the last two years though, it has consistently remained on people. If a team has good people, no matter what the odds, it will build a great product for me. I don’t mind if nobody else buys the product, but I do care that it fix my problems. One of the biggest differences a failed product and a successful product are the people behind it.
The very first thing you noticed in early 2009 was that the Windows Mobile blog started getting entries regularly. The team showed it cared. I don’t believe people flock to Apple “despite” its arrogance. People flocked to Apple because they felt abandoned by us. There were many problems faced by newbies when writing their first app on a Windows Mobile, and this blog started giving template code and tips on how to work around those.
The next big jump came when usability became the 1st priority on the prototypes. A lot of times, programmers, like everyone else, get sucked into the trap of showing how good they are through their code. What that eventually leads to are features nobody asked for. The first iPhone was successful mainly because it was (counterintuitively) surprisingly sober. Look at the 3D desktop space on Linux today. In 2007, I saw all these great promises of melting windows and fading windows, and yet Windows 7 still only sports some really good functionality to tab across open windows that’s much better to get my work done (proven by number of PCs running it). WM6.x series (and Android too) both felt like a few developers showing what fancy stuff they can do on a resume.
Today the people behind Windows Phone 7 tell you what you can do with the phone. It’s no longer about my personal prowess of coding skills, but about unleashing the potential of the user. Today if you asked what camera the Windows Phone will use, the answer you’re most likely to get is, “From the time I decide to take a picture, to the time the picture is showing up on my FB, is less than ten seconds.” I know it didn’t answer your question and that’s just the point I’m coming to next.
Scenarios: The biggest assurance of confidence I got was when I read Terry Myerson’s interview recently where he spoke of the Unique Device ID enforcement on OEMs. Unless you’ve been pushed to write a lot of authentication code on a phone, you’ll never realise the value of this move, but I just knew these guys know exactly what a developer needs. It’s not this specific feature that excited me, but as I mentioned, the thinking behind it that inspired me. It means they finally “get it.”
I personally faced about 10 scenarios in my two years where a unique device ID, secure storage and fluid UIs were necessary. Windows Phone 7 may not cure cancer, but it gets the basics right, basics which are very difficult to change for a company the size of Microsoft. It’s no joke to commit to an API set for the next couple of decades, and that’s where Microsoft still has the advantage of experience.
This is for those who keep pinging me with specs. I’m going to say this once, and it’s the last time I will say it, as clearly as humanly possible. I don’t care. You know what the difference between the most popular Nokia feature phones and the horribly useless smartphones was? The Nokia phones could make phone calls. I really don’t care if I have a Bose hand-crafted-by-nuns-from-the-african-rainforest-wooden speaker, if I can’t make a phone call! (This is not a cheap stab at iPhone 4, I’m saying this with a straight face.) The purpose I buy a phone is to make a call. If that call quality is improved, I pay for it. If it isn’t, Idon’t care. You may claim technology “obviously” improves call quality. You’d be so wrong.
To me, the time taken from when I decide to take a picture, to the time it is tagged, categorized in an album and ready to be commented-upon by my friends on facebook is what makes for a good camera. Second to that is the quality of the picture, which while I don’t understand photography, I don’t equate with resolution. In fact, it’s precisely because I don’t know what makes a good picture, that I want to see it to believe it. A camera that takes crisp pictures despite shaky hands is what I love. A 10 megapixel camera that I can’t use is of no use to me.
In the last three weeks, I’ve taken about a thousand pictures in three different cameras. I’ve still yet to share them because moving them out of the phones/cameras as such a pain!
So for those of you who want to judge Windows Phones on technology, I’d suggest you’re looking in the wrong direction. Even if you were given good technology, you’d be looking at it all wrong. It doesn’t take a genius to plug out a 10MP camera and replace it with a 20MP camera (although one notoriously popular phone out there took many years to do that). It takes a genius to design the entire photo ecosystem around it.
All of this depends on Trust.
Trust: You know what made the iPhone popular? No no, apart from all the fancy graphics? Trust in Apple. What Richard Stallman claimed was a lock-in was actually a trust-system. My bank disables my cards if it sees erratic activity. Rather than change the bank, I become a fan of the bank!
The iPhone (until the latest version) delivered on the little promises it made (except the MobileMe fiasco). Frankly, one of the reasons I won’t use any phone except the iPhone for the next year is the lack of trust I have. Since 2007, I’ve used about 20-30 models of phones each of which claimed to be “the iPhone killer.” Every single time, it didn’t just miss the mark slightly, but made me question what demented lunatics tried to con me into buying one.
Once again, we rely on Terry Myerson. His interviews inspire trust, and if he delivers on those little promises by the holiday season, it will be a huge win for the company. Everyone knows they didn’t have the time to do everything the iPhone does, and the very fact that he’s honest about it, assures me it will make an impact. See, we never wanted cut-copy-paste in a phone in order to buy one. What we really wanted was if you claimed that there exists cut-paste, then that it should work each and every time. Myerson gets this. We didn’t want everything in the first OS, we wanted to know that when you did put in cut-paste, that you’d ensure I wouldn’t have to pay 1K dollars (that’s about 40K rupees, and consider the highest paid wages in India are about 60K a month, and there are no return policies in India), for a new phone when you do.
I see this as a brilliant move. There are hundreds of people who simply want their outlook mail to get to the phone, and want assurance that their documents and spreadsheets are accessible wherever they go. They couldn’t care less if the phone cured cancer or not.
Conclusion: Conclusion of the post, not any conclusions drawn from the above. I don’t believe Windows Phone 7 will sell 600,000 units on the day of it’s launch. I don’t think that’s a bad thing. I’m sure it will sell to the right demographic and build a hardcore fan-following by delivering on every promise they’re making. If you saw the energy going into the testing and dogfooding programs, there’s no doubt things like, “Making a phone call”, and “taking a picture”, will work smoothly without a hitch. Those who’ve hated the Objective-C pseudo-native style of iPhone coding will welcome the simpler App platform. Will all iPhone app-equivalents be able to be written on Windows Phone 7? Absolutely not.
I wouldn’t go into statements like, “Windows Phone 7 will kick iPhone’s ass.” I think they’re unfair statements subject to a lot of wasteful debates – current phones in the market vs. this-quarter-sales vs. specific model sales vs. all-devices-combined-sales vs. revenues vs. change-of-sales vs. profits.
The question I believe that Windows Phones will answer in the holiday season is, “Will I get a phone that works, and is guaranteed to do all that it claims?”
This is also one of the reasons why I heavily discourage statements which misrepresent our offering in the market. I would be very embarrassed to see a WP7 fan posting, “Windows Phones are kicking iPhone ass”, and then have a stream of comments pointing out the hundred things iPhones can do that Windows Phones can’t. It would only increase mistrust towards our offering. I certainly like to think we’re better than the slashdotter of the last 12 years who claimed, “This is the year Linux will kill Windows.
